Coronavirus (Corona Virus) Risk Calculator,

Coronavirus emerged in late 2019 and by 2020 became a global concern being escalated to be classed as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation in March 2020. Due to the sudden emergence of the Coronavirus and the global reaction to the threat of the spread of the virus there has been significant public concern and reaction. Not all of this reaction has been appropriate, some overreacting to the threat but this is due to the confusion over the actual threat to life caused by the Coronavirus.

The Coronavirus Risk Calculator, provided by iCalculator, provides an age-related risk to life ratio based on specific age groups and published figures. The aim of this calculator is to provide a level playing field where you can more accurately assess the risk in comparison to the headline numbers published in the wider media which typically create fear and confusion rather than providing a holistic assessment. It is worth remembering that it is in the medias interest to create fear and concern, this in turn extends their reach, sells papers and increases viewers as peoples fear mean they crave information. It is of course important for us to have a clear understanding of the facts and risks; we all need to protect ourselves and our loved ones but it is important to be sensible. On this page we include a Coronavirus Risk Calculator and supporting information about Coronavirus so you have a clear understanding of what the virus is, how to reduce your chances of catching the virus, what to expect if you do get the virus and details on survival rates based on age groups.

Coronavirus Risk Calculator
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There is insufficient real world data to provide an accurate fatality risk for Coronavirus as the true amount of cases remains unknown. View the article below for fatality rates and the way they are reported.

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What is Coronavirus?

Coronavirus is a virus with flue like symptoms that can affect airways and the lungs.

Coronavirus Risk Calculator. This image shows a gauge of Coronavirus risk to life based on a scaled approach where red indicates the highest risk to life caused by Coronavirus and green indicates the lowest risk to life when contracting Coronavirus.

How do I avoid catching Coronavirus?

Coronavirus is a new virus so no one really knows exactly how the virus spreads from one person to another though the educated assumption is that is spreads in a similar way to other similar viruses.

It is currently believed that Coronavirus is spread in cough and/or sneeze droplets emitted from an infected individual. The belief is that an individual who is infected with Coronavirus is most contagious during the first 4 days that they display the symptoms of Coronavirus. This does not mean that they will not spread the disease after 4 days, simply that they are less infectious at that point.

Current thinking is that Coronavirus is then passed from one person to another when someone comes into contact with the infected droplets by either:

touching a surface that is infected and then transmitting this to their mouth or nose
breathing in infected droplets when in close proximity to an infected person

Given the two means in which Coronavirus is spread, reducing the risk of catching Coronavirus is quite straightforward:

Regularly wash your hands
When out in public, take hand sanitiser and use it whenever you come into contact with a surface
Avoid contact with anyone who displays the symptoms of Coronavirus
If you do get the symptoms of Coronavirus yourself, self isolate for a minimum of 7 days (if the symptoms get worse, seek medical helps)
If members of your household display symptoms, self isolate for a minimum of 7 days (if the symptoms get worse, seek medical helps)
Catch all coughs and sneezes with a tissue and put the tissue in a bin immediately after use.
Wash your hands immediately after you cough or sneeze into a tissue.
If you do not have a tissue to hand, catch all coughs and sneezes with your sleeve and NOT your hands. Change the garment as soon as possible and wash it.
Do not touch your face, particularly your mouth, nose or eyes unless your hands are clean.

Who has the highest risk of catching Coronavirus?

As with similar virus like seasonal flu, Coronavirus poses the highest risk to those who are vulnerable. In a viral sense, it is still too early to quntify exactly who is most are risk but, from the statistics reported from the outbreak in China, it is clear Coronavirus poses a risk to the elderly as well as those who have lung disease, heart disease and/or diabetes

What are the symptoms of Coronavirus?

The symptoms of Coronavirus are very similar to the flu with those who have caught Coronavirus suffering with a high temperature and persistent cough

What is the Treatment for Coronavirus?

This is perhaps the most important question and then one which causes most concern, if you do get Coronavirus, what is the treatment? At the moment, there is no defined treatment for Coronavirus. Like all viruses, antibiotics will not work on Coronavirus. The suggested treatment for initial phases is bed rest, plenty of water and deal with Coronavirus the same way you would deal with seasonal flu. If the symptoms persist and you feel that it is becoming more severe then you should seek medical assistance. In severe cases, individuals who have contracted Coronavirus may need to be admitted to hospital for more dedicated support.

What should I do if I catch Coronavirus?

If you do think you have Coronavirus, the most important thing is to self-isolate. This helps to reduce the spread at which the virus spreads around the population, thus allowing:

More time for medical researches to create a vaccine
A slower, more controlled spread of the virus and therefore less impact of health services (meaning you are more likely to get the appropriate medical support you need, if you need it)
A greater chance for natural immunity to build
Greater protection for those who are vulnerable within our societies, typically those already ill, with underlaying health issues and the elderly

About the Coronavirus Risk Calculator

The Coronavirus Risk Calculator is currently a placeholder. why? The reality is that there is simply insufficient data to make a sensible quantified assessment of the risk of dying from coronavirus by any one single age group or ethnicity. Notwithstanding this, it is important to understand how the fatality rate is calculated and why understanding that fatality rate ratio is important, particularly given how much the media distort the numbers in order to create headlines.

Lets start by looking at the formula for measuring fatality rate:

cfr = n / c

Where:

cfr = Coronavirus Fatality Rate
n = Number of Deaths caused by Coronavirus
c = Number of Cases of Coronavirus

Quantifying the fatality rate efficiently therefore is completely dependent on knowing the exact number of those who have actually have Coronavirus. The truth is that this number is not actually known as many who get the virus will self-isolate, be ill for a few days and then recover. If we consider the key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report:

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N = 44 672)

≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)
30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)
20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)
10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)
<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)
14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)
8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)
49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

On initial review, the mortality rate is quite a cause for concern but we need to focus on the key phrase "confirmed cases". The mortality rates are purely engineered around confirmed cases, they do not factor in the fact that a lot of people will get ill, not report it, then recover. So, the important point here is to underline that whilst Coronavirus is deadly in some cases, the actual fatality rate is most likely significantly lower than the media like to report. The sensible approach therefore is to adhere to the medical advice, take precautions and self-isolate as suggested.

It is also important to consider that the outbreak initiated in China, this meant they had to react rather and deal with the problem rather than having the luxury of being able to plan for the virus. As Coronavirus has spread across the globe, countries have learned and become better position to manage the spread of the virus. If we consider the UK, this is most likely the best place to gain a fatality risk ratio for Coronavirus, why? There has been time to prepare and put a plan in place, whilst the plan may not be perfect, it aims to delay the initial spread of the disease, control exposure, put solid public information in place and prepare health resources to manage the outbreak peak when it comes. The table below provides an overview of the demographics of the UK population. Whilst it is too early in the outbreak of the UK to provide any sensible risk ratios, the data is held here for refinement from which a fatality risk ratio will be provided as more tangible data becomes available.

What are the Sources of data used in the Coronavirus Risk Calculator?

UK Population Age Range¹
Age Range	Total	Asian	Black	Mixed	White	Other
0 to 4	3496750	365207	176849	219796	2684720	50178
5 to 9	3135711	323251	156365	162596	2451735	41764
10 to 14	3258677	290690	145649	141390	2645470	35478
15 to 17	2079229	176135	88220	79614	1713250	22010
18 to 24	5267401	543338	197321	167126	4291624	67992
25 to 29	3836609	450383	146941	98861	3076127	64297
30 to 34	3683915	449113	158230	79486	2931879	65207
35 to 39	3732161	378009	153117	63413	3083346	54276
40 to 44	4099089	297699	170155	59251	3529082	42902
45 to 49	4100526	220332	159252	50245	3637280	33417
50 to 54	3601694	197126	104540	32391	3241624	26013
55 to 59	3183915	166627	57825	19970	2919608	19885
60 to 64	3377162	116348	34876	14886	3196687	14365
65 to 69	2674161	77482	32032	11574	2543742	9331
70 to 74	2178672	71627	35590	8782	2055873	6800
75 to 79	1777547	49198	26074	6816	1690772	4687
80 to 84	1338005	26010	14236	4578	1290136	3045
85 to and over	1254688	14956	7618	3625	1226440	2049

GOV.UK - Ethnicity Facts and Figures - Data collated on 13/03/2020
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/demographics/age-groups/latest#main-facts-and-figures
NHS.UK - COVID-19 - Data collated on 13/03/2020
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
CDC.GOV - People at Risk for Serious Illness from COVID-19 - Data collated on 13/03/2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html
jamanetwork.com - Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China - Data collated on 13/03/2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

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Please note that the Corona Virus Risk Calculator is provided for your personal use and designed to provide information and information relating to the calculations only. The Corona Virus Risk Calculator should not be used for you to self-diagnose conditions, self-medicate or alter any existing medication that you are currently prescribed by your Doctor. If the Corona Virus Risk Calculator produces a calculation which causes you concern, please consult your Doctor for support, advice and further information.

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